Statistical Adjustment Model Summary for Illinois

This is a summary of the key elements derived from the statistical adjustment models developed for PY 2020-2021. For each individual performance indicator there are plots that show how the actual level of performance for Illinois in PY 2018 compared to all states and how the predicted level of performance (i.e., Estimate0) for Illinois in PY 2020 compares to the predicted levels for all states. There are also tables that give all the relevant model estimates and pre-PY 2020 data for all of the model variables. In addition, the last tab has a table that identifies all the variables included in each individual indicator model.

Adult

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Adult program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 78.2% for Illinois for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 0.72) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (0.063).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.1302 0.5525 7.19%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0308 0.5980 -1.84%
Age 45 to 54 -0.1545 0.1482 -2.29%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0779 0.0455 -0.35%
Age 60 or more -0.5993 0.0238 -1.43%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0815 0.1460 1.19%
Race: Asian -0.2333 0.0419 -0.98%
Race: Black 0.0861 0.4933 4.25%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.1320 0.0021 -0.03%
Race: American Indian 0.0501 0.0066 0.03%
Race: Multiple -0.1183 0.0089 -0.11%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1257 0.5578 -7.01%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1221 0.1720 -2.10%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0978 0.0323 0.32%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0773 0.0599 -0.46%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1722 0.0798 1.37%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1430 0.0252 -0.36%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1964 0.3363 6.61%
In School at Program Entry 0.1265 0.0398 0.50%
Individual with a Disability -0.1813 0.0364 -0.66%
Veteran 0.2901 0.0270 0.78%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0306 0.0380 -0.12%
Single Parent -0.0942 0.2050 -1.93%
Low Income 0.0081 0.8389 0.68%
Homeless -0.0534 0.0181 -0.10%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1550 0.1354 2.10%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1842 0.0009 -0.02%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1889 0.6257 11.82%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0157 0.0217 0.03%
UI Claimant -0.0148 0.0540 -0.08%
UI Exhaustee 0.1394 0.0307 0.43%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0620 0.0018 0.01%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.4886 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.0494 0.6751 -3.34%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.0205 0.0210 -0.04%
TANF Recipient 0.0438 0.0243 0.11%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0220 0.0000 0.00%
Median Days in Program -0.0002 274.0000 -5.02%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 2.1266 0.0045 0.95%
Construction Employment 0.8615 0.0381 3.28%
Manufacturing Employment 0.1897 0.0987 1.87%
Information Services Employment -5.3312 0.0177 -9.41%
Financial Services Employment -4.8664 0.0633 -30.79%
Professional and Business Services Employment 3.7575 0.1591 59.80%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.8235 0.2246 18.50%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.8923 0.1092 -9.74%
Other Services Employment 4.5274 0.0351 15.88%
Public Administration 2.2149 0.0430 9.53%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.6822 0.0427 2.91%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $6,643 for Illinois for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 40902) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-34260).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2841.0668 0.5804 -$1,649
Age 25 to 44 -862.0930 0.6019 -$519
Age 45 to 54 -3144.2089 0.1393 -$438
Age 55 to 59 -5290.3216 0.0418 -$221
Age 60 or more -6059.0062 0.0169 -$102
Hispanic Ethnicity 232.4254 0.1430 $33
Race: Asian -4413.8578 0.0410 -$181
Race: Black -2324.8593 0.4835 -$1,124
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -6352.7320 0.0023 -$15
Race: American Indian -2692.4326 0.0063 -$17
Race: Multiple 6983.7945 0.0100 $70
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 362.0217 0.5560 $201
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 826.8902 0.1754 $145
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1324.3050 0.0361 -$48
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 5643.1853 0.0602 $340
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 4052.0797 0.0797 $323
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 8539.9365 0.0249 $213
Employed at Program Entry 965.0801 0.3740 $361
In School at Program Entry 3623.2012 0.0459 $166
Individual with a Disability -989.2237 0.0310 -$31
Veteran -1349.3089 0.0238 -$32
Limited English Proficiency -4419.8922 0.0381 -$168
Single Parent 145.7630 0.2195 $32
Low Income -332.4067 0.8340 -$277
Homeless -446.4262 0.0143 -$6
Individual who was Incarcerated 2013.3031 0.1210 $244
Displaced Homemaker -1947.9185 0.0009 -$2
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 807.6246 0.6810 $550
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3653 3848.5750 $1,406
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 2011.8227 0.0181 $36
UI Claimant 685.8891 0.0570 $39
UI Exhaustee -2567.3504 0.0292 -$75
Supportive Services Recipient 912.9138 0.0020 $2
Received Needs-related Payments 15112.5289 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 107.5299 0.6701 $72
SSI or SSDI Recipient -5911.8510 0.0163 -$97
TANF Recipient 840.8641 0.0246 $21
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -205.4928 0.0000 $0
Median Days in Program 3.2489 276.0000 $897
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 24063.8444 0.0045 $108
Construction Employment 32326.4938 0.0381 $1,231
Manufacturing Employment 39237.2625 0.0987 $3,872
Information Services Employment -48189.2565 0.0177 -$851
Financial Services Employment 4074.2901 0.0633 $258
Professional and Business Services Employment 96754.4484 0.1591 $15,398
Educational or Health Care Employment 56163.1547 0.2246 $12,616
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 57668.0011 0.1092 $6,298
Other Services Employment 10767.7935 0.0351 $378
Public Administration 39658.6388 0.0430 $1,707
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -6106.3827 0.0427 -$260

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 38.1% for Illinois for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 7.089) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-6.707).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.3614 0.6033 -21.80%
Age 25 to 44 0.5218 0.6358 33.17%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0702 0.1158 -0.81%
Age 55 to 59 -0.9975 0.0296 -2.95%
Age 60 or more 2.9217 0.0156 4.57%
Hispanic Ethnicity -1.4456 0.1458 -21.08%
Race: Asian 2.1310 0.0321 6.83%
Race: Black -0.5671 0.4614 -26.16%
Race: American Indian 0.8520 0.0064 0.55%
Race: Multiple 1.9759 0.0124 2.44%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1218 0.5591 -6.81%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1842 0.1868 -3.44%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0731 0.0480 0.35%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.8544 0.0751 -6.42%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.2005 0.0757 -1.52%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 1.8387 0.0174 3.19%
Employed at Program Entry 0.3647 0.4712 17.19%
In School at Program Entry -0.3045 0.0621 -1.89%
Individual with a Disability -0.2611 0.0277 -0.72%
Veteran 0.2508 0.0222 0.56%
Limited English Proficiency 0.8810 0.0222 1.96%
Single Parent 0.2135 0.2464 5.26%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.7809 0.1302 10.16%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0013 0.6674 -0.08%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0652 0.0225 0.15%
UI Exhaustee 0.0104 0.0149 0.02%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1297 0.0027 -0.03%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.4929 0.0261 1.29%
TANF Recipient -0.2848 0.0150 -0.43%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0732 0.0000 0.00%
Median Days in Program 0.0004 263.0000 9.33%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 167.0000 -4.07%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.0087 0.0720 -0.06%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 10.0155 0.0045 4.48%
Construction Employment 8.9287 0.0381 34.01%
Manufacturing Employment 12.1240 0.0987 119.63%
Information Services Employment -43.8313 0.0177 -77.38%
Financial Services Employment 31.7234 0.0633 200.73%
Professional and Business Services Employment 7.5758 0.1591 120.57%
Educational or Health Care Employment 9.9286 0.2246 223.03%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 2.5813 0.1092 28.19%
Other Services Employment 32.8685 0.0351 115.30%
Public Administration -0.1431 0.0430 -0.62%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -13.5535 0.0427 -57.82%

Dislocated Worker

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Dislocated Worker program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 83.6% for Illinois for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.85) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.686).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0596 0.3852 2.30%
Age 25 to 44 0.0189 0.4252 0.81%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0169 0.3177 -0.54%
Age 55 to 59 0.1060 0.1492 1.58%
Age 60 or more -0.1905 0.0734 -1.40%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1185 0.1731 2.05%
Race: Asian -0.2910 0.0404 -1.18%
Race: Black -0.0358 0.2872 -1.03%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.8792 0.0024 0.21%
Race: American Indian -0.0983 0.0053 -0.05%
Race: Multiple -0.1947 0.0065 -0.13%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0259 0.4462 -1.16%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1942 0.1346 -2.61%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.1799 0.0186 -0.34%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0907 0.0743 -0.67%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1447 0.1780 -2.58%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1210 0.0906 -1.10%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1061 0.0000 0.00%
In School at Program Entry -0.0254 0.0092 -0.02%
Individual with a Disability -0.0527 0.0143 -0.08%
Veteran 0.0056 0.0751 0.04%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2521 0.0145 -0.37%
Single Parent 0.0446 0.1019 0.46%
Low Income -0.0518 0.1833 -0.95%
Homeless 0.0306 0.0044 0.01%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.3775 0.0717 2.71%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2274 0.0070 -0.16%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1131 0.8448 9.56%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0574 0.0215 0.12%
UI Claimant 0.0208 0.7022 1.46%
UI Exhaustee 0.0737 0.1731 1.28%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0496 0.0000 0.00%
Received Needs-related Payments -0.4938 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1259 0.1213 -1.53%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.8134 0.0044 0.35%
TANF Recipient -0.5301 0.0010 -0.05%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0512 0.0000 0.00%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 314.0000 0.25%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -2.0224 0.0045 -0.91%
Construction Employment -0.4670 0.0381 -1.78%
Manufacturing Employment -1.7064 0.0987 -16.84%
Information Services Employment -9.8998 0.0177 -17.48%
Financial Services Employment -6.2744 0.0633 -39.70%
Professional and Business Services Employment -3.6027 0.1591 -57.34%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.9946 0.2246 -44.81%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.8519 0.1092 -31.15%
Other Services Employment 3.0428 0.0351 10.67%
Public Administration 1.2295 0.0430 5.29%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.4118 0.0427 1.76%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $9,935 for Illinois for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 38213) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-28278).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1901.3415 0.3887 -$739
Age 25 to 44 1115.5154 0.4339 $484
Age 45 to 54 -125.9873 0.3208 -$40
Age 55 to 59 -2126.3785 0.1448 -$308
Age 60 or more -2492.9312 0.0645 -$161
Hispanic Ethnicity -857.7550 0.1723 -$148
Race: Asian -4684.9713 0.0365 -$171
Race: Black -1536.6027 0.2843 -$437
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3269.1753 0.0025 -$8
Race: American Indian -3522.2138 0.0051 -$18
Race: Multiple -3712.0594 0.0059 -$22
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1400.0970 0.4506 -$631
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -1902.9048 0.1358 -$258
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 83.4151 0.0195 $2
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 1526.2402 0.0772 $118
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 1169.4179 0.1785 $209
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2155.0497 0.0854 $184
Employed at Program Entry 1700.7794 0.0000 $0
In School at Program Entry 3787.5103 0.0102 $39
Individual with a Disability 279.5931 0.0127 $4
Veteran 1445.8344 0.0764 $110
Limited English Proficiency -2976.1328 0.0144 -$43
Single Parent -784.4348 0.1052 -$83
Low Income -538.7097 0.1774 -$96
Homeless 7893.8250 0.0031 $25
Individual who was Incarcerated 1805.9783 0.0707 $128
Displaced Homemaker 192.7564 0.0071 $1
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 21.0817 0.8566 $18
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0917 10052.3200 $921
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1348.3682 0.0192 $26
UI Claimant 68.6962 0.7018 $48
UI Exhaustee -2493.0132 0.1666 -$415
Supportive Services Recipient 176.1628 0.0000 $0
Received Needs-related Payments 6660.1906 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 470.0451 0.1194 $56
SSI or SSDI Recipient -2105.8014 0.0031 -$7
TANF Recipient -4222.3011 0.0006 -$2
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -403.3425 0.0000 $0
Median Days in Program 2.2222 308.0000 $684
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -27241.5941 0.0045 -$122
Construction Employment 36651.6742 0.0381 $1,396
Manufacturing Employment 47186.5858 0.0987 $4,656
Information Services Employment -260263.7041 0.0177 -$4,595
Financial Services Employment 85893.1957 0.0633 $5,435
Professional and Business Services Employment 95022.1320 0.1591 $15,122
Educational or Health Care Employment 51172.3083 0.2246 $11,495
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43978.6506 0.1092 $4,803
Other Services Employment -4546.6888 0.0351 -$159
Public Administration 22271.2780 0.0430 $958
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5795.6816 0.0427 -$247

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 43.0% for Illinois for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 6.545) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-6.116).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.1509 0.4288 -6.47%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0655 0.4848 -3.18%
Age 45 to 54 0.2414 0.2851 6.88%
Age 55 to 59 0.4579 0.1226 5.62%
Age 60 or more 0.9139 0.0706 6.45%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.6646 0.1849 -12.29%
Race: Asian -0.5340 0.0565 -3.02%
Race: Black -0.3293 0.2847 -9.37%
Race: American Indian 2.6465 0.0050 1.33%
Race: Multiple 0.0503 0.0060 0.03%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1922 0.4209 -8.09%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.2384 0.1141 -2.72%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.2607 0.0346 -0.90%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2625 0.0752 1.97%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1123 0.2119 -2.38%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.4275 0.1074 -4.59%
Employed at Program Entry -0.0215 0.0000 0.00%
In School at Program Entry -0.2643 0.0098 -0.26%
Individual with a Disability -1.4481 0.0107 -1.55%
Veteran -0.9235 0.0642 -5.93%
Limited English Proficiency 0.4514 0.0167 0.75%
Single Parent 0.3691 0.0935 3.45%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.4693 0.0632 2.97%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0287 0.8423 2.42%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.3881 0.0301 1.17%
UI Exhaustee 0.3561 0.1699 6.05%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0615 0.0002 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.4356 0.0062 -0.27%
TANF Recipient -3.8716 0.0007 -0.28%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0963 0.0000 0.00%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 250.0000 -8.03%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 158.0000 -4.32%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days 0.1620 0.0835 1.35%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -8.0806 0.0045 -3.62%
Construction Employment 4.4493 0.0381 16.95%
Manufacturing Employment 9.8551 0.0987 97.25%
Information Services Employment -58.7056 0.0177 -103.64%
Financial Services Employment 12.1977 0.0633 77.18%
Professional and Business Services Employment 16.0554 0.1591 255.52%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.1634 0.2246 160.92%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.5122 0.1092 16.51%
Other Services Employment 65.3154 0.0351 229.12%
Public Administration -2.8478 0.0430 -12.26%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10.8237 0.0427 -46.17%

Youth

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Youth program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 77.5% for Illinois for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.283) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.059).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0595 0.5388 3.20%
Age 14 to 15 0.1226 0.0057 0.07%
Age 16 to 17 -0.1436 0.2259 -3.24%
Age 18 to 19 -0.2054 0.3285 -6.75%
Age 20 to 21 0.0105 0.2111 0.22%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0628 0.2194 -1.38%
Race: Asian 0.1989 0.0205 0.41%
Race: Black -0.0414 0.4896 -2.03%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.5342 0.0023 -0.12%
Race: American Indian -0.3341 0.0080 -0.27%
Race: Multiple 0.1508 0.0222 0.33%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0691 0.4754 3.29%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.3127 0.0264 -0.83%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 1.1469 0.0043 0.49%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 0.4935 0.0065 0.32%
Employed at Program Entry 0.2748 0.2222 6.11%
In School at Program Entry 0.0356 0.1557 0.55%
Individual with a Disability -0.0469 0.1631 -0.76%
Limited English Proficiency -0.1392 0.0097 -0.13%
Low Income 0.0375 0.6752 2.53%
Homeless -0.2008 0.0537 -1.08%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.0635 0.0597 0.38%
Foster Care Youth -0.0100 0.0057 -0.01%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -0.0716 0.2038 -1.46%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0349 0.7073 2.47%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0867 0.0074 -0.06%
UI Claimant -0.0433 0.0128 -0.06%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0442 0.5598 2.47%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.7660 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1510 0.4848 -7.32%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0743 0.0210 0.16%
TANF Recipient -0.0341 0.0384 -0.13%
Pell Grant Recipient 0.0368 0.0111 0.04%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance 0.0005 0.3132 0.02%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0148 0.0000 0.00%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 328.0000 -1.32%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -6.7872 0.0045 -3.04%
Construction Employment -1.8800 0.0381 -7.16%
Manufacturing Employment -1.3602 0.0987 -13.42%
Information Services Employment -7.2974 0.0177 -12.88%
Financial Services Employment -2.1367 0.0633 -13.52%
Professional and Business Services Employment -2.5564 0.1591 -40.68%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.0247 0.2246 0.55%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.3944 0.1092 -4.31%
Other Services Employment -10.7940 0.0351 -37.86%
Public Administration 3.2993 0.0430 14.20%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.4872 0.0427 -6.34%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $3,625 for Illinois for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 14774) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-11148).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1877.4943 0.5536 -$1,039.44
Age 14 to 15 -92.3013 0.0054 -$0.50
Age 16 to 17 -1309.0587 0.1976 -$258.69
Age 18 to 19 -1066.4762 0.3203 -$341.55
Age 20 to 21 649.4931 0.2299 $149.33
Hispanic Ethnicity 1913.4585 0.2249 $430.36
Race: Asian 649.7122 0.0169 $10.99
Race: Black -886.3703 0.4879 -$432.45
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3388.4232 0.0027 -$9.12
Race: American Indian -184.4720 0.0058 -$1.06
Race: Multiple 933.1134 0.0215 $20.09
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 1383.9408 0.5044 $698.09
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -828.1913 0.0323 -$26.75
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 173.0955 0.0058 $1.00
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 6672.3330 0.0077 $51.31
Employed at Program Entry 613.7857 0.2618 $160.70
In School at Program Entry 546.1994 0.1384 $75.60
Individual with a Disability -495.1811 0.1596 -$79.01
Limited English Proficiency 2456.3023 0.0092 $22.66
Low Income -305.7985 0.6840 -$209.16
Homeless 983.9044 0.0546 $53.72
Individual who was Incarcerated -1284.6596 0.0542 -$69.64
Foster Care Youth 1009.8293 0.0042 $4.27
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 854.5128 0.2195 $187.59
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -283.4775 0.6967 -$197.49
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -630.2664 0.0073 -$4.60
UI Claimant -462.5838 0.0138 -$6.40
Supportive Services Recipient 161.1750 0.5636 $90.84
Received Needs-related Payments 2823.2240 0.0000 $0.00
Received Other Public Assistance -184.0786 0.4875 -$89.74
SSI or SSDI Recipient -1658.7545 0.0196 -$32.52
TANF Recipient -539.6509 0.0384 -$20.75
Pell Grant Recipient 104.1843 0.0119 $1.24
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -4.3341 0.3218 -$1.39
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -27.8731 0.0000 $0.00
Median Days in Program 0.5942 319.5000 $189.85
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -3172.1958 0.0045 -$14.20
Construction Employment 10994.4772 0.0381 $418.83
Manufacturing Employment 21559.9593 0.0987 $2,127.43
Information Services Employment -55465.6493 0.0177 -$979.23
Financial Services Employment 44805.1055 0.0633 $2,835.04
Professional and Business Services Employment 14219.0161 0.1591 $2,262.90
Educational or Health Care Employment 20372.0444 0.2246 $4,576.37
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 7088.2477 0.1092 $774.10
Other Services Employment 57026.8505 0.0351 $2,000.41
Public Administration 43573.5139 0.0430 $1,875.11
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10090.2192 0.0427 -$430.45

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 29.7% for Illinois for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 4.445) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-4.148).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.2758 0.5583 -15.40%
Age 14 to 15 -0.8106 0.0089 -0.72%
Age 16 to 17 -0.9025 0.2518 -22.73%
Age 18 to 19 -0.6998 0.3096 -21.66%
Age 20 to 21 -1.6404 0.1975 -32.39%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0170 0.2124 -0.36%
Race: Asian -0.0162 0.0243 -0.04%
Race: Black 0.0042 0.3983 0.17%
Race: American Indian -0.1578 0.0105 -0.17%
Race: Multiple 1.9727 0.0238 4.70%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.2692 0.4041 -10.88%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 1.0513 0.0234 2.46%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.6449 0.0080 -0.52%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 1.9000 0.0062 1.19%
In School at Program Entry 0.0220 0.2206 0.49%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.1976 0.7192 14.21%
UI Claimant 0.0198 0.0067 0.01%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0712 0.6267 -4.46%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2742 0.3695 10.13%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.5536 0.0167 0.93%
Pell Grant Recipient -0.8864 0.0201 -1.78%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0503 0.0000 0.00%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 236.0000 -7.70%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.3441 0.0678 -2.33%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 7.6282 0.0045 3.42%
Construction Employment 9.5740 0.0381 36.47%
Manufacturing Employment 5.8313 0.0987 57.54%
Information Services Employment -42.8136 0.0177 -75.59%
Financial Services Employment -14.2433 0.0633 -90.12%
Professional and Business Services Employment 14.4769 0.1591 230.39%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.0634 0.2246 158.67%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 6.2993 0.1092 68.79%
Other Services Employment 50.8391 0.0351 178.34%
Public Administration -7.3408 0.0430 -31.59%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.1663 0.0427 -4.98%

Wagner-Peyser

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Wagner-Peyser program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 70.0% for Illinois for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.302) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.602).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0801 0.4061 3.25%
Age 25 to 44 0.1086 0.3917 4.25%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0860 0.2547 -2.19%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0070 0.1329 -0.09%
Age 60 or more -0.0629 0.1382 -0.87%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.2326 0.1507 3.50%
Race: Asian -0.2354 0.0230 -0.54%
Race: Black -0.1609 0.3254 -5.24%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.9703 0.0024 0.23%
Race: American Indian -0.3062 0.0085 -0.26%
Race: Multiple 0.2471 0.0085 0.21%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0172 0.4063 -0.70%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0386 0.2303 0.89%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0422 0.0311 -0.13%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.3496 0.0641 2.24%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.6768 0.1008 -6.82%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.5246 0.0351 -1.84%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0865 0.0345 0.30%
In School at Program Entry -0.0903 0.0198 -0.18%
Individual with a Disability -0.3557 0.0522 -1.86%
Veteran 0.2170 0.1760 3.82%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0185 0.0242 -0.04%
Single Parent 0.2027 0.1551 3.14%
Low Income 0.0926 0.0114 0.11%
Homeless -0.0667 0.0127 -0.08%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1850 0.0088 0.16%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2304 0.0023 -0.05%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3174 0.8275 26.26%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.1541 0.0427 -0.66%
UI Claimant -0.0385 0.8081 -3.11%
UI Exhaustee -0.0897 0.0196 -0.18%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1026 0.0000 0.00%
Received Needs-related Payments -9.8950 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1163 0.0010 -0.01%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 1.0873 0.0015 0.16%
TANF Recipient -0.5680 0.0004 -0.02%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 30.0000 -0.83%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 1.6856 0.0045 0.75%
Construction Employment 1.5411 0.0381 5.87%
Manufacturing Employment 1.0127 0.0987 9.99%
Information Services Employment -0.4595 0.0177 -0.81%
Financial Services Employment 2.9649 0.0633 18.76%
Professional and Business Services Employment 0.9431 0.1591 15.01%
Educational or Health Care Employment 1.2831 0.2246 28.82%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 0.5919 0.1092 6.46%
Other Services Employment 3.9021 0.0351 13.69%
Public Administration 1.7006 0.0430 7.32%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.3440 0.0427 1.47%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $6,057 for Illinois for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 41154) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-35098).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2774.8460 0.4048 -$1,123
Age 25 to 44 1526.7709 0.4133 $631
Age 45 to 54 223.6212 0.2653 $59
Age 55 to 59 1725.9534 0.1268 $219
Age 60 or more 3989.3863 0.1064 $424
Hispanic Ethnicity 1506.2736 0.1548 $233
Race: Asian -1285.7589 0.0221 -$28
Race: Black -2926.8319 0.3305 -$967
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -2473.0352 0.0025 -$6
Race: American Indian -5567.8497 0.0088 -$49
Race: Multiple 10678.0968 0.0092 $98
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1763.8797 0.4125 -$728
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -2177.4526 0.2302 -$501
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -2180.3190 0.0329 -$72
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 2095.5471 0.0646 $135
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 72.8128 0.1009 $7
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -5012.8376 0.0334 -$167
Employed at Program Entry 456.1906 0.0349 $16
In School at Program Entry -1155.2072 0.0164 -$19
Individual with a Disability -5107.0692 0.0446 -$228
Veteran -913.8967 0.1685 -$154
Limited English Proficiency 1563.7512 0.0231 $36
Single Parent 660.1018 0.1557 $103
Low Income 634.4633 0.0090 $6
Homeless -3513.0948 0.0105 -$37
Individual who was Incarcerated 1920.7679 0.0076 $15
Displaced Homemaker -10834.3804 0.0024 -$26
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -219.4792 0.8802 -$193
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.2612 7075.6900 $1,848
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 771.2849 0.0313 $24
UI Claimant 454.7967 0.8144 $370
UI Exhaustee 247.9889 0.0216 $5
Supportive Services Recipient -636.3855 0.0000 $0
Received Needs-related Payments -21804.7067 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance -1174.5793 0.0006 -$1
SSI or SSDI Recipient 10874.7587 0.0011 $11
TANF Recipient 1657.8393 0.0003 $0
Median Days in Program 0.8717 30.0000 $26
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 37057.6079 0.0045 $166
Construction Employment 42760.7710 0.0381 $1,629
Manufacturing Employment 47700.8708 0.0987 $4,707
Information Services Employment 11314.8086 0.0177 $200
Financial Services Employment 62614.6797 0.0633 $3,962
Professional and Business Services Employment 67885.3402 0.1591 $10,804
Educational or Health Care Employment 51491.7764 0.2246 $11,567
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43018.4305 0.1092 $4,698
Other Services Employment 41629.7443 0.0351 $1,460
Public Administration 51356.2602 0.0430 $2,210
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5089.3910 0.0427 -$217

Full Model Variable Table

The table below shows which variables are included in which models. It also includes both the variable names used in the modeling process and the full name of the variables.

Variable Names
Adult
Dislocated Worker
Youth
Wagner-Peyser
Model Variable Full Variable Name Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME
female Female x x x x x x x x x x x
age1415 Age 14 to 15 x x x
age1617 Age 16 to 17 x x x
age1819 Age 18 to 19 x x x
age2021 Age 20 to 21 x x x
age2544 Age 25 to 44 x x x x x x x x
age4554 Age 45 to 54 x x x x x x x x
age5559 Age 55 to 59 x x x x x x x x
age60 Age 60 or more x x x x x x x x
hispanic Hispanic Ethnicity x x x x x x x x x x x
raceasian Race: Asian x x x x x x x x x x x
raceblack Race: Black x x x x x x x x x x x
racehpi Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander x x x x x x x x
raceai Race: American Indian x x x x x x x x x x x
racemulti Race: Multiple x x x x x x x x x x x
hsgrad Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency x x x x x x x x x x x
collegedropout Highest Grade Completed: Some College x x x x x x x x x x x
certotherps Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree x x x x x x x x x x x
associate Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree x x x x x x x x
ba Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree x x x x x x x x
associateorba Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree x x x
gradschool Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree x x x x x x x x
empentry Employed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
edstatentry In School at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x
disabled Individual with a Disability x x x x x x x x x x
veteran Veteran x x x x x x x x
englearner Limited English Proficiency x x x x x x x x x x
singleparent Single Parent x x x x x x x x
lowinc Low Income x x x x x x x x
homeless Homeless x x x x x x x x
offender Individual who was Incarcerated x x x x x x x x x x
dishomemaker Displaced Homemaker x x x x x x
yfoster Foster Care Youth x x
yparent Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth x x
basiclitdeficient Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry x x x
recwages2qprior Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x x x x x x
wages2qprior Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x
longtermunemp Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
uiclaimant UI Claimant x x x x x x x x x
uiexhaustee UI Exhaustee x x x x x x x x
recsuppserv Supportive Services Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
recneeds Received Needs-related Payments x x x x x x x x
recotherasst Received Other Public Assistance x x x x x x x x x
recssi SSI or SSDI Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
rectanf TANF Recipient x x x x x x x x x x
recpell Pell Grant Recipient x
ynaa Youth Needing Additional Assistance x x
wp Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services x x x x x x x x x
daysinprog Median Days in Program x x x x x x x x x x
daysenrolled Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training x x x
daysenrolled_under30 Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days x x x
natresources Natural Resources Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
construction Construction Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
manufacturing Manufacturing Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
information Information Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
financial Financial Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
business Professional and Business Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
edhealthcare Educational or Health Care Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
leisure Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
otheremp Other Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
publicadmin Public Administration x x x x x x x x x x x
ur Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted x x x x x x x x x x x